Is America still a superpower? Not anymore, due to deindustrialization.

Since the Second World War most Britons have unquestioningly accepted the premise that Britain should continue to rank as a first order world Power while, on the other, insisting that living standards should continue rising and social services be protected from taxes needed to finance foreign policy commitments. The question is not, can Britain continue to think and behave as a Great Power? The question is, can she afford to? – F. S. Northedge, 1970.

Before Ukraine, America was number one, at least perception-wise. After Ukraine, American is number two economically and number three militarily – a reality that the world is accepting. Russia knows this. Russia no longer fears the American military. It’s not that they want to go to war against the America military, but Russia knows its capabilities. It’s been tested. China knows this, too. When will Europe realize that NATO is a false prophet? When will Europe realize that the money they put into NATO is wasted? Scott Ritter, former Marine Corps officer and a chief weapons inspector with the UN in Iraq.

A leaked US Navy briefing slide “PLAN vs. USN Naval Force Laydown,” showed China’s shipyards have a capacity of 23 million tons, 232 times greater than the maximum US capacity of 100,000 tons.

It’s both a relief and a melancholy fact that America won’t go to war with Russia or China because she can’t afford to.

Thanks to 1980s neoconservative downsized government and privatized everything, the US exported most of its industrial capacity to China – along with its intellectual property – and our 2022 STEM ranking is the result:

 

Why we fail

Says Correlli Barnett, “The power of a nation-state by no means consists only in its armed forces, but also in its economic and technological resources; in the dexterity, foresight and resolution with which its foreign policy is conducted; in the efficiency of its social and political organization. It consists most of all in the nation itself: the people; their skills, energy, ambition, discipline, initiative; their beliefs, myths and illusions. And it consists, further, in the way all these factors are related to one another. Moreover, national power has to be considered not only in itself, in its absolute extent, but relative to the state’s foreign or imperial obligations; it has to be considered relative to the power of other states”.

The Power of Other States

1. Armed forces. No serious military scholar imagines the US Army could challenge the Russian Army in Europe or the PLA in Asia – especially since both have defeated it in battle. On the ocean, the PLAN will have 400 new warships armed with hypersonic missiles next year, while the US Navy’s 293 older boats neither possesses nor can defend against hypersonics. The PLAN currently commissions three warships to our one, and for every F35 we make the PLA takes into inventory three much faster J-20s with twice the range and four times the payload.
2. Economic and technological resources. Russia’s economy is the world’s fourth largest, its arms are a generation ahead, its manufacturers are four times more productive, and its generals are the world’s best. China’s productive economy is three times bigger than ours, and its researchers lead ours in science and technology.
3. The dexterity, foresight and resolution with which its foreign policy is conducted. Ninety percent of the world’s people do business and sympathize with Russia or China, whose leaders are global rock stars. Ten percent of the world’s people support America, whose leader is regularly insulted to his face.
4. The efficiency of its social and political organization. 80% of Russians support their government’s policies and 96% of Chinese support theirs. Barely 34% of Americans trust their government or support its policies.

   

    

5. Skills, energy, ambition, discipline, initiative, beliefs, myths and illusions of the people. China’s and Russia’s recoveries reflect their people’s resilience, skills, energy, ambition, discipline, initiative and collective self-belief. The US has yet to recover from the GFC, struggles to staff a chip fab, and hasn’t granted its workers a raise since 1974.
6. Foreign or imperial obligations. Ukraine, on the heels of the Afghanistan imbroglio, suggests that the US is incapable of sustaining its obligations towards allies. Its withdrawal from the Iran nuclear pact suggests that its word is worthless.
7. National power relative to the power of other states. If Washington hopes to match Russia or China militarily, it must double real defense spending through 2034 to match China’s current capabilities.

America is overextended, overinflated, and its State competence – from governance to justice to military to infant mortality – is deteriorating while it ignores the symptoms of decline.

Failed State?

As Noam Chomsky and others have observed, failed state’s institutions are feeble, flawed, and sometimes barely functional. Legislatures, judiciaries, bureaucracy, and armed forces lose their capacity and independence. Crumbling infrastructure, faltering utility supplies, degraded educational and health facilities and falling human-development indicators like infant mortality and literacy1 mark its decline. Failed states flourish on corruption and negative growth rates, crushing honest economic activity.

How long could post-Covid America, its people weakened by chronic diseases and dying younger each year, wage an industrial war against a confident superpower (or two) economically industrially, scientifically and militarily superior?

As Chomsky pointed out, we’re not competing because we’re a failed state: our institutions are too feeble, flawed and dysfunctional to pull the nation together and effectively address its problems. We’re doing what we’ve always done – threatening, talking and empty-promising (a high speed railway for Saudi Arabia!?) – but 90% of the world’s people have stopped listening.

Man the lifeboats.