China as Global Leader: How the Iran War, Strait of Hormuz and Palestine Shifted Power from West to East

For the first time in 500 years, Islam controls the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-al-Mandab. China’s 75 years of support for Palestine and decades of patient diplomacy are paying off big time.

See the original 2024 post (in which I predicted this) here.

For the first time in 500 years, the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea are under Muslim control. For the first time in 500 years the ummah has a spiritual leader, a Saladin¹. And for the first time in 500 years their spiritual leader is backed by a superpower.

Xi’s spadework

For 75 years, China has maintained a consistent, principled stand on the Palestinian issue, even as many Muslim nations — ruled by corrupt or tyrannical regimes — ignored or betrayed the Palestinian people. Then, in December 2022, during the China-Arab States Summit, Xi Jinping cajoled them into signing the in Riyadh Declaration:

The Palestinian issue has always been the core issue in the Middle East, which requires an end to Israel’s occupation of the Palestinian territory and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital in accordance with relevant UN resolutions.

The PRC’s ethical, long-standing position has now translated into tangible strategic advantage for Palestinians and oppressed muslims everywhere. As the Straits have come under de facto Muslim control for the first time in 500 years, China finds itself in a uniquely favorable position.

A show of U.S. force that was meant to intimidate Beijing has instead served to puncture the illusion of U.S. omnipotence: unable to reopen the Strait of Hormuz alone, Washington now needs its principal strategic competitor to help it manage a crisis of its own making. Ali Wyne, senior adviser for U.S.-China relations, ICG.

Beijing has built a dense network of economic and political ties that now allows Chinese-linked vessels preferential access through the Strait of Hormuz while much of the world’s shipping is frozen out. Craig Singleton, Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

Since late February 2026, Iran has restricted passage through the Strait of Hormuz, allowing safe transit primarily for vessels from friendly nations like China, Russia, India, Pakistan, and Iraq, while barring or heavily charging U.S., Israeli, and aligned Western shipping. As backup, Houthi forces have the capacity to disrupt passage through the Bab el-Mandeb at any time.

During his January 2016 state visits to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran, President Xi signed dozens of agreements covering energy, infrastructure, high-speed rail, petrochemicals, nuclear energy, and renewable energy projects. In Saudi Arabia, they included the launch of the Yasref oil refinery joint venture. Egypt got a satellite-manufacturing factory and a Suez SEEZ. Iran’s 17 agreements focused on high-speed rail, expanded oil and gas cooperation in adding value to the country’s oil exports by processing them domestically.

Six years later, in 2022, at the China-Saudi, China-GCC, and China-Arab States summits in Riyadh, China signed a comprehensive strategic partnership with Saudi Arabia—with 30 additional agreements worth tens of billions of dollars in green energy, information technology, transport, logistics and manufacturing, and a plan to align the BRI and Saudi Vision 2030.

Xi’s spadework is beginning to bear fruit. Through the Belt and Road Initiative, comprehensive strategic partnerships, and consistent engagement with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and regional actors, China cultivated relationships rooted in mutual benefit, non-interference, respect for sovereignty (and, above all, buying lots of their oil). That foundation sustains Beijing’s influence now—while traditional powers, lacking China’s credibility, find themselves impotent.

Is this the big deal I think it is? Your thoughts?

1. Saladin unified Egypt, Syria, and parts of Mesopotamia under one rule despite deep sectarian and dynastic divisions. He rebuilt Muslim unity against the Crusaders after decades of fragmentation. He recaptured Jerusalem (1187) and negotiated a favorable peace with Richard the Lionheart during the Third Crusade. His chivalry, mercy in victory, and reputation for justice earned admiration even from his Christian enemies.