China Threatens US Subs Like It Threatens US Carriers.
Subs are becoming PLA targets. Game over for the Silent Service?
The mentality of the Western ruling class towards China is a bizarre mixture of unreasoning fear, hatred, incredulity and almost catatonic incapacity to conceive the future. The last is perhaps the most important, because nothing in the professional experience, or for that matter the education, of western rulers has prepared them for a situation where they are manifestly inferior militarily and economically to a hostile power and there is nothing they can do about it. Aurelian.
Despite Washington’s bellicose China rhetoric, the West remains distinctly inferior to China militarily, and nowhere is that more obvious than in the field of submarine warfare. Like most Western military analysts, Paul Dibb (article pictured above), overstates America’s submarine strengths and underestimates its vulnerabilities. Nowhere are US submarines more vulnerable than off the China coast, for they have been under surveillance since they left home port, and the closer they sail to China the more detection systems will lock onto them. Here are a dozen:
Operational sub-detection technologies
Fixed seabed acoustic arrays, the Underwater Great Wall. Operational. Hydrophone networks on the SCS seabed. A network of underwater sensors, fixed seabed sensors, hydrophones, and surveillance systems deployed in the South China Sea and East China Sea, modeled after the U.S. Cold War-era Sound Surveillance System (SOSUS). Chinese fishing boats carry towed sonar to monitor submarine activity in real-time.
Magnetic Anomaly Detection, MAD1. Unlike airplanes, submarines’ low speed and low maneuverability render them vulnerable once detected, so their most important feature is stealth. US subs’ sophisticated sound-damping coatings and
propulsion systems make them difficult to detect by acoustic methods like sonar, so a novel technique, Magnetic Anomaly Detection, MAD, uses airborne magnetometers to detect the V-shaped disturbance, ‘the Kelvin Wake’, submarines leave as they move through water, which generates a faint but detectable magnetic field when seawater ions, disturbed by motion, interact with the Earth’s geomagnetic field. Using numerical simulations, the PLAN matches these magnetic signatures to subs’ speed, depth and size.
Long-Range Acoustic Detection Systems (LRADS). Operational. Ship-towed & seabed hydrophones for long-range tracking. China has invested heavily in hydrophone-based systems that use sound waves to detect submarines, even in challenging conditions like shallow or noisy waters. These can be deployed on ships, submarines, or the seabed. Long-Range Acoustic Detection Systems (LRADS):
Passive Depth-Discrimination: A passive acoustic detection method, tested using 2020 Arctic expedition data
Terahertz Technology: Terahertz-based detectors that sense minute surface vibrations caused by submarines, tested off the coast of Dalian in the Yellow Sea. While limited in water penetration, this technology enhances detection of submarines near the surface.
Electromagnetic (EM) Signal Tracking: a truck-sized detection system that tracks faint EM signals from submarines, tested in the South China Sea in 2024. It can detect surface ships up to 1.86 miles away and potentially submarines at greater distances (up to 31 miles with further development).
Algorithms: An algorithm distinguishes submarine signals from sea life, improving accuracy. The system requires multiple high-precision sensors synchronized within a billionth of a second, indicating significant technical sophistication.
Laser-Equipped Satellites and Balloons: China has developed laser-equipped satellites capable of detecting submarines up to 525 feet (160 meters) underwater, doubling the depth of previous systems. These use green and blue lasers with highly sensitive photon detectors.
Sensor Balloons: Thousands of sensor-equipped balloons hover over the South China Sea, tracking vessel wakes to identify and monitor maritime activity.
Underwater Drones and Unmanned Systems: China’s underwater drones, equipped with hydrophones and magnetometers, can operate for months, enhancing surveillance. These “submarine hunters” were unveiled in 2022 and are designed to detect and track submarines autonomously.
Airborne Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW): China operates 20 KQ-200 maritime patrol aircraft (similar to the U.S. P-8 Poseidon), with a range of 3,000 miles, equipped for ASW. These deploy sonobuoys and use magnetic anomaly detection (MAD) systems.
Superconducting Quantum Interference Devices: SQUIDs are advanced magnetic sensors that detect tiny disturbances in the Earth’s magnetic field caused by submarine hulls, offering better performance than traditional MAD systems.
A laser that can reach 160 metres below the sea surface — a development that would significantly boost China's naval deterrence capabilities.
Reading
China can detect US Seawolf-class submarine with magnetic wake tracking: study.
Chinese ghost radar operates at near-light-speed, leveraging the Doppler effect to enhance submarine detection capabilities.
While a USN P-3 Orion's Magnetic Anomaly Detector (MAD) is primarily designed to detect the magnetic disturbance caused by a submarine, it's not specifically designed or intended to detect the magnetic anomaly associated with a Kelvin wake, nor sensitive enough to reliably detect these weaker, more spread-out magnetic disturbances
Another brilliant, information-rich post. Thanks for the deep dive.