Predicting is Hard,

especially about China's future.

The realities of a still-shrinking property sector, limited consumer spending, falling trade surplus, and battered local government finances mean that actual growth in 2023 was more like 1.5%. – Rhodium Group.

Rhodium Group calls themselves 'analysts' and – based on their Western interpretation of events in China – charge money for guessing about China. The nonsensical analysis, above, was probably paid for by the $500 million fund Congress established last year to spread negative opinions about China. It’s published now because there’s a push to and discourage people investing there, coordinated with the ongoing raid on the Shanghai Exchange. Big deal.

Ask the man who owns one

If you honestly want to know what's happening – or will happen – in China, call the Press Officer at the relevant ministry in Beijing.

She’s backed by the world’s best money people, who’ve made the PBOC the richest bank in world history. They run an exascale computer that’s constantly modeling their economy and predicting where GDP is headed. They’re so good that Obama’s currency guy, Brad Setser, says they’re they’ve stashed $6Tn foreign reserves in addition to the $3Tn they’ve publicly disclosed. That good.

The honest truth?

If Beijing says something, you can take it to the bank. Even their predictions come true. Their Five Year Plans predict everyone’s improved conditions five years in advance. They're always on the money.

I should know. I live hours from the border, and visit regularly. The only discrepancy between government prediction and public progress I found was when I went to see remote Kunming's first subway. The second line already operating, with a third under construction. The locals were more impressed about the new railway line connecting them to 27,000 miles of HSR track. Since then they’ve completed the first stage of the line to Chiang Mai, Thailand, and another to Lhasa! Lhasa, for God’s sake, has faster, cheaper 5G than New York.

My prediction

The Rhodium Group’s predictions will never go out of fashion. They never have.

1990. China's economy has come to a halt. The Economist

1996. China's economy will face a hard landing. The Economist

1998. China's economy’s dangerous period of sluggish growth. The Economist

1999. Likelihood of a hard landing for the Chinese economy. Bank of Canada

2000. China currency move nails hard landing risk coffin. Chicago Tribune

2001. A hard landing in China. Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas

2002. China Seeks a Soft Economic Landing. Westchester University

2003. Banking crisis imperils China. New York Times

2004. The great fall of China? The Economist

2005. The Risk of a Hard Landing in China. Nouriel Roubini

2006. Can China Achieve a Soft Landing? International Economy

2007. Can China avoid a hard landing? TIME

2008. Hard Landing In China? Forbes

2009. China's hard landing. China must find a way to recover. Fortune

2010: Hard landing coming in China. Nouriel Roubini

2011: Chinese Hard Landing Closer Than You Think. Business Insider

2012: Economic News from China: Hard Landing. American Interest 

2013: A Hard Landing In China. Zero Hedge 

2014. A hard landing in China. CNBC

2015. Congratulations, You Got Yourself A Chinese Hard Landing. Forbes 

2016. Hard landing looms for China. The Economist

2017. Is China's Economy Going To Crash? National Interest

2018. China's Coming Financial Meltdown. The Daily Reckoning.

2019 China's Economic Slowdown: How worried should we be? BBC2020. Coronavirus Could End China's Decades-Long Economic Growth Streak. NY Times

2021 Chinese economy risks deeper slowdown than markets realize. Bloomberg

2022. China Surprise Data Could Spell R-e-c-e-s-s-i-o-n. Bloomberg.

2023. No word should be off-limits to describe China's faltering economy. Bloomberg

*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-year_plans_of_China