Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Leon Liao's avatar

Of course, I do not fully agree with Godfree’s line that “sanctions have been the greatest unintentional R&D program in history.” There is some truth in that claim, but it needs to be handled with much more precision. Sanctions do not automatically generate innovation. In many countries, external containment and technological blockade would just as easily produce stagnation, fragmentation, or outright decline.

What really matters is that China already possessed a substantial industrial base, a sufficiently large domestic market, a complete manufacturing network, and strong organizational capacity. What sanctions did was not to create these capabilities from scratch, but to suddenly accelerate processes that could otherwise have unfolded much more slowly: domestic substitution, technological coordination, and the concentration of capital around strategic sectors.

Put differently, sanctions did not create China’s capabilities. They forced China to mobilize, integrate, and reorganize capabilities that had already been accumulated to a meaningful degree — only at a much faster pace.

James Filbird's avatar

Excellent post. I’ve lived in Shenzhen for 20 years and have witnessed the incredible rise of growth and innovation produced in this truly amazing city.

10 more comments...

No posts

Ready for more?